How MFPI's pregame rankings fared: Weeks 1-3 rankings against the games that followed

What was measured

For every game between two ranked MHSAA teams, the favorite is the team with the higher full-precision MFPI in the latest snapshot published before that game's date, including an audited correction if one was issued before kickoff. Later rankings and later corrections are never used to pick a favorite.

A game counts as correct when the favorite won. Results are the verified final scores in the Week 4 snapshot. MFPI is a rating of past performance, not a betting line: home field, injuries and weather are not considered, and no point spread is implied.

Excluded and disclosed below: games against non-MHSAA or out-of-state opponents (they have no MFPI rating), games where both teams had exactly equal ratings, tied games, and games involving a team credited with two games on the same date (a listing under review).

Results by ranking week

Across these windows the favorite won 216 of 304 (71.1%). The Week 1 ranking was built from about one game per team plus the fading classification prior; the table shows each week's rate as published.

Bigger rating gaps were more reliable

Games grouped by the pregame MFPI gap between the two teams.

Largest upsets by pregame rating gap

Callaway High School beat Terry High School 7-6 on Sep 18, overcoming a 47.1-point gap in the Week 3 ranking.

Kossuth High School beat Tishomingo County High School 31-13 on Sep 11, overcoming a 45.2-point gap in the Week 2 ranking.

Amanda Elzy High School beat North Pontotoc High School 20-14 on Sep 18, overcoming a 36.9-point gap in the Week 3 ranking.

Picayune Memorial High School beat Biloxi High School 34-31 on Sep 11, overcoming a 29.2-point gap in the Week 2 ranking.

West Bolivar High School beat West Tallahatchie High School 14-8 on Sep 4, overcoming a 28.6-point gap in the Week 1 ranking.

Data notes and limitations

Snapshot generated September 22, 2026 at 11:19 AM Central with a cutoff of September 22 at 11:00 AM Central, formula MFPI-3.2.

458 of 465 game listings due by the cutoff had verified scores (98.5%); the rest count as unavailable, never as losses or 0-0 results.

Cleveland Central High School had no linked results in this snapshot because the score feed lists the school under a different name. The link has been confirmed and applies from the next weekly run; until then its rating is provisional and does not reflect its games.

No verified results were linked to Northside High School for this cutoff. Their ratings are provisional and rest on class, media and neutral inputs; their positions should not be read as the product of games.

Houston High School is credited with two games on Sep 11 in this snapshot. One of them was played by a same-named out-of-state school; that game is removed from Houston High School's record from the next weekly run, which also affects its opponents.

Opponent ranks in this article are the opponent's rank in this snapshot, not its rank on the day the game was played, unless a sentence says otherwise.

Formula versions differed across these weeks (MFPI-3.0 to MFPI-3.2); each ranking is evaluated as it was published.

Samples are small (304 games); a few results can move these percentages several points.